The Risk of Discovery

In our understanding of eminent scientists and their journeys, we often overlook the risks they embraced, primarily because their biographies tend to omit their errors. The conventional wisdom today is largely shaped by their successful endeavors, making their choices appear risk-free.

Take Isaac Newton, for instance. His biographies predominantly highlight his contributions to physics, while his pursuits in alchemy and theology are less emphasized. This portrayal gives the impression that Newton's impeccable judgment led him to undiscovered truths. However, his extensive engagement with alchemy and theology raises questions. One might attribute this to the eccentricities often associated with intelligent individuals.

Yet, perhaps the intelligence and eccentricity are not as distinct as we perceive. In Newton's era, physics, alchemy, and theology were all seen as equally promising fields. The potential of what we now call physics was unknown; had it been apparent, more individuals would have been involved. Alchemy and theology, too, were considered potentially groundbreaking, encapsulated in Marc Andreessen's phrase, "huge, if true."

Newton took three gambles. Only one — physics — paid off. But all three were fraught with uncertainty. This perspective illuminates the inherent risk in scientific exploration, a facet often hidden in the narratives of successful scientists. It underscores that the path to groundbreaking discoveries is not always linear or predictable, and that what may seem an obvious waste of time in hindsight could have been a promising venture at the moment.

The original article: https://paulgraham.com/disc.html