How to Be an Expert in a Changing World
If the world were static, we could have monotonically increasing confidence in our beliefs. However, this is not the case, especially for things that change, which could include practically everything. When experts are wrong, it's often because they're experts on an earlier version of the world. To avoid obsolete beliefs, one must actively protect against them. As a startup investor, I've learned that most really good startup ideas initially look like bad ideas because some change in the world just made them viable.