How to Be an Expert in a Changing World

If the world were static, we could have monotonically increasing confidence in our beliefs. However, this is not the case, especially for things that change, which could include practically everything. When experts are wrong, it's often because they're experts on an earlier version of the world. To avoid obsolete beliefs, one must actively protect against them. As a startup investor, I've learned that most really good startup ideas initially look like bad ideas because some change in the world just made them viable.

The first step is to have an explicit belief in change. This helps you look for change, even though it is hard to predict and often comes from unforeseen quarters. Instead of trying to predict the future, it's better to be aggressively open-minded and super sensitive to the winds of change. It's okay to have working hypotheses, but they should not harden into rigid beliefs.

New ideas often come from solving problems and not discounting weird hunches. These hunches, especially from domain experts, are worth exploring. Within Y Combinator, a crazy idea is often a higher compliment than a good one. Startup investors have extraordinary incentives for correcting obsolete beliefs, as they stand to gain financially and reputationally.

Another technique to protect against obsolete beliefs is to focus on people rather than ideas. Good new ideas come from earnest, energetic, independent-minded people. Betting on the right people can be more reliable than betting on ideas themselves. By surrounding yourself with people from whom new ideas originate, you can quickly notice when your beliefs become obsolete.

Change is accelerating, and it's hard not to become the prisoner of your own expertise. Ideas beget ideas, and this acceleration has been ongoing since the paleolithic era. While I don't expect this to change, I acknowledge that I could be wrong.

The original article: https://paulgraham.com/ecw.html